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Special elections Tuesday could provide a high-stakes assessment of how suburban voters feel about the border, abortion rights, the two leading presidential candidates and whether the House of Representatives should be led by Democrats or Republicans. In another race, to fill a vacant seat in the Pennsylvania General Assembly, Democrat Jim Prokopiak is in a close race against Republican Candace Cabanas. But it’s the New York race that has the attention of election-watchers because of its amplified importance in the closely divided House of Representatives. Should Democrats prevail in the toss-up election, they'll flip the seat held by Santos and give themselves some momentum heading into November. Pilip has cast Suozzi as weak on border security, a powerful issue in a state where migrants have been transported after coming over the southern border.

Persons: George Santos, Democrat Jim Prokopiak, Republican Candace Cabanas, Santos, Don Levy, Tom Suozzi, Mazi, Levy, Pilip, Suozzi, Bill Cunningham, Tom Bonier, Bonier, Cunningham, Joe Biden Organizations: Democrats, Voters, Republican, Assembly, Democrat, York, GOP, Siena College Research Institute, Democratic, Rep, Federal, Commission Locations: , New York, Pennsylvania, York, New York

☆ How Abortion Could Define the 2024 Presidential Race - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Tom Bonier | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Mr. Trump’s narrow lead in recent polls is largely due to Mr. Biden’s underperforming with younger voters and voters of color relative to his support levels in 2020. That said, in the immediate aftermath of seeing his state overwhelmingly support abortion rights this week, the Republican senator J.D. Vance of Ohio is urging a national Republican position on abortion in the form of a 15-week ban. Before the Virginia elections, national Republicans clearly hoped that Mr. Youngkin had found the consensus choice, with what they emphasized as limits on abortion, not bans. Abortion rights have had the biggest impact on elections over the past year and a half where voters believe abortion rights to be threatened and when they plausibly see their votes as a means to protect or reinstate abortion rights, it is good news for Democrats and for expanding or protecting abortion access.

Persons: Dobbs, Biden, J.D, Vance of Ohio, Trump, Mr, Youngkin Organizations: Republicans, Representatives, Democratic, Senate, Republican, Republican Party Locations: Virginia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona

☆ With eye on 2024, Republicans push for early voting despite Trump's rhetoric
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Joseph Ax | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

That could make it difficult for the party to deliver a coherent message on early voting. In an advertisement that aired during the first Republican presidential debate in August, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said into the camera: "When Republicans vote early, we win." With Trump railing against the practice, Democrats have increased their edge in early voting. In 2022, that gap widened, with Democrats accounting for 42.5% of early ballots and Republicans 33.8%. But Youngkin advisers said their data showed the early vote campaign had brought in ballots from low-propensity voters as well.

Persons: Glenn Youngkin, Jonathan Ernst, Donald Trump, Trump, haven't, Youngkin, Ronna McDaniel, Tom Bonier, Bonier, Dave Rexrode, Joseph Ax, Nathan Layne, Colleen Jenkins, Deepa Babington Organizations: Virginia Republican, REUTERS, Virginia, White House, U.S, Senate, Republican, Republican State Leadership Committee, Republican National Committee, Trump, University of Florida, Banking, Democrats, Republicans, Democratic Legislative, Committee, Democratic, Thomson Locations: Chantilly , Virginia, U.S, Virginia, Henrico County, Iowa

☆ Abortion politics take center stage after Biden campaign capitalizes on GOP debate rift
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( Arit John | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The GOP divide was laid bare on the debate stage this week, as candidates backed a 15-week abortion ban, deferred to the states or tried to split the difference. “There’s no real consensus at this point.”Biden’s reelection campaign has also homed in on remarks GOP candidates made on abortion during the debate. The ad, aimed at women in seven battleground states, is part of a $25 million ad campaign CNN first reported earlier this week. Republicans have begun to coalesce around the idea of a federal abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Pence used his remarks at the same conference to call on every GOP candidate to back a 15-week ban as a national standard.

Persons: Roe, Wade, Joe Biden’s, ”, Whit Ayres, “, ” Biden’s, Republicans “, Biden’s, Donald Trump, Donald Trump , South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, ” Biden, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Dobbs, Jackson, Trump –, Georgia –, Tom Bonier, Bonier, they’ve, DeSantis, Susan B, Anthony Pro, ” Marjorie Dannenfelser, Kellyanne Conway, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Mike Pence, Scott, Pence, CNN’s Dana Bash, Trump, ” Trump, Ayres, they’ll Organizations: CNN, Republican, GOP, Democratic, Republicans, ” CNN, Florida Gov, MAGA Republicans, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Voters, Biden, America, Washington, Trump White House, UN Ambassador, South Carolina Gov, Arkansas Gov, Asa Hutchinson , North Dakota Gov, Thursday Fox, Trump, Freedom Coalition Locations: Donald Trump , South Carolina, Florida, U.S, Nevada , Arizona , Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson , North

☆ How Trump’s legacy became ‘pure poison’ for independents
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

Among female independents, Trump’s ratings were even worse: just 23% favorable and 72% unfavorable, according to previously unpublished exit poll results provided by the CNN polling unit. Trump’s unfavorable rating hit a comparable 69% among independents with at least a four-year college degree. That was a significantly smaller advantage than the double-digit lead among independents Democrats enjoyed in both the 2020 presidential race and the 2018 contest for the House. While Democrats held the presidency, Republicans won independents by double-digits in House elections in the midterms of 2014, 2010 and 1994. Gretchen Whitmer won 59% of the independents with degrees and 56% of women independents.

Outgunned financially as Democrats dominate early voting, Herschel Walker’s Georgia Senate campaign Thursday begged donors to pony up more money because of Sen. Raphael Warnock’s growing sense of momentum. We need help,” Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise wrote in the memo sent to donors Thursday, which was obtained by NBC News ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election. “Core Republican voters just can’t get fired up about Walker, and they came out in the general because they liked Kemp or their congressional candidates. The Walker campaign is no longer beaming with the confidence it had heading into Election Day in November. “Some people still can’t get over the Trump connection,” said Ed Muldrow, the former chairman of the Gwinnett County GOP.

☆ Analysis: Abortion, Trump dashed Republican hopes for 'red wave'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( James Oliphant | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

They wanted to protect abortion rights and stop candidates beholden to Republican former president Donald Trump. That surprised Democratic Party strategists and pollsters, who had expected inflation would trump everything, including concerns about the loss of abortion rights. Michigan voters approved a ballot issue that gave abortion state constitutional protection and re-elected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who had vowed to “fight like hell” to protect abortion rights. Sydney Wright, an 18-year-old student at the University of Nevada, Reno, said she counts herself as a conservative but voted Democratic because of abortion. THE TRUMP FACTORLike Wright, Nyasha Riley, 37, a registered Republican in Phoenix, voted for Democrats because of abortion rights and Trump.

☆ Analysis: Abortion, Trump dash Republican hopes for 'red wave'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( James Oliphant | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

☆ Some in White House worry abortion message bungled before midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Nandita Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Some White House officials believe they should have linked abortion to economic concerns more, rather than fundamental rights and privacy, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The White House faced a similar situation when trying to expand the child tax credit earlier this year, both sources noted. White House spokesman Kevin Munoz dismissed "any notion of over focus" on reproductive rights and said Biden has addressed multiple issues. The White House has asked the DNC to gather data for an election postmortem to identify what messages worked and what didn't, party sources said. The White House signed executive orders on the issue and met with state legislators, grassroots activists and coalitions to finetune abortion messaging.

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